Modeling and Simulation of Healthcare Systems Selected papers on System Dynamics Content Paper 1. Patient Flow and Hospital Staffing Requirements This paper shows how the combination of system dynamics modeling with machine learning gives forecast modelers the ability to insert tacit knowledge into machine learning forecasts for improved accuracy and causal discovery. From these forecasts, the underlying dynamics are analyzed and future personnel requirements are calculated. Paper 2. Forecasting Public Regional Health Needs This example shows how to apply a Simulation Model built using System Dynamics to forecast the Health Care Needs of a regional population over time, and doing so, to define the number of new doctors that should be integrated in the Public Regional Health Services in order to cover those needs. Paper 3. Forecasting the Shortage of Neurosurgeons System dynamic modeling is applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons up to 2020. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables. Supply model incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Paper 4. Simulating Childhood Obesity The paper analyzes the relationship between childhood obesity and neighbourhood walkability. In contrast with more conventional global analysis, this research employs localized analysis and assesses need-based interventions. Simulation results suggest that local walkability interventions can achieve measurable declines in childhood obesity rates. Paper 5. Modeling Vector Borne Disease Mosquito can spread animal and human diseases and these diseases are called Vector borne diseases (VBD). The paper shows a generic SD model to use when it is necessary to plan the action against a vector borne disease. Paper 6. Generic Model of Contagious Disease This paper describes a contagious disease model and its application to human-to-human transmission of a mutant version of avian influenza. The model offers the option of calculating rates of new infections over time based either on a fixed “reproductive number” or on contact rates for different sub- populations. Paper 7. Increasing Patient's Safety Level Different policies regarding electronic health records, patient safety culture, and clinical governance have been implemented on the model created to increase patient's safety level, and their simulation results have been examined. The policy related to patient safety culture has the greatest impact on clinical errors. Paper 8. Prevention of Rabies and Vaccination Coverage Dogs are important reservoirs of rabies, a zoonotic viral encephalitis that kills thousands of people in Asia and Africa annually. The aim of this study was to explore with a simulation model the effect of dog demography on rabies vaccination coverage following a mass vaccination campaign with at least 70% vaccination coverage. Paper 9. Deceased Donors for Organ Transplantation A system dynamics model is being developed to help identify how that system’s behavior affects the availability of deceased donor organs and how particular strategic policy options might increase the number available for transplantation. The structure and data sources for the model are described along with illustrative tests of those strategic options. Paper 10. Antimicrobial and Antibiotic Resistance Through system thinking methodology, the author describes the underpinning framework and combines the several component of the antimicrobial o antibiotic resistance (AMR), a very complex and interconnected issue. The next pandemia could be caused by a resistant bacteria. We could go back to the pre antibiotic-era when we were without defense against bacteria. Paper 11. Cost Treatment of Hepatitis C Using a system dynamic framework, the paper quantifies the HCV-infected population, disease progression and costs. Model assumptions and costs were extracted from the literature. No incremental increase in antiviral treatment over current levels was assumed, despite the future availability of potent antivirals. Paper 12. Model for Suicide Prevention This paper introduce the Stress-Injury Pathway to Military Suicide (SIPMS), a systems model of suicide and its prevention in the military. SIPMS partitions the uniformed population into states that relate to mental health and suicide risk. Looking forward, it provides a basis for forecasting suicide rates, a quantitative means to evaluate proposed interventions, and a baseline for validating implemented interventions. Paper 13. Modeling For Human Resources Planning This paper investigate the dynamics of the Human Resource Planning (HRP) in a typical Information Technology (IT) company. HRP involves analyzing and forecasting the talent requirements of the organization. The main focus of the study was to construct a model for a multilevel organization structure with appropriate flows related to recruitment at various levels, promotion and attrition. Paper 14. Scenario Planning Workshop The paper show a practical experience and discuss key implementation challenges of a systems approach that combines System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Qualitative Data Analysis in tackling a complex problem, showing the difficulties encountered in designing and planning the Scenario Planning workshop. Paper 15. Stereotypes in Socio-Economic Systems After several modelling iterations that synchronised the acquired models with the obtained responses, four main key stereotypes were identified: quality, ego, competence, and motivation. In this paper both dominant feedback loops and important multi-input and multi-output variables are used for their description. Paper 16. The Bass Diffusion Model The Bass Diffusion Model (BDM) is one of the most successful models in marketing research in particular and management science in general. This paper illustrates the limitations of the BDM, using mobile diffusion as a context, showing that it does not follow an S-curve in some cases. Paper 17. Evaluate Future Businesses Performance This study develop a business simulation environment to help evaluate future businesses performance using system dynamics approach for entrepreneurship. Students see the simulation of their future businesses useful to check if the business will be profitable and cash breakeven. Paper 18. Group Model Building This paper do not shows a model but summarise current knowledge and understanding in the public participation literature. What participatory methods should be used in which situations and particularly how they should be applied are still insufficiently addressed questions. Paper 19. Infectious Disease Model A Learning Environment Simulator is designed to engage decision makers to deepen their understanding of evolving crises, enhance their intuition and allow them to test their own strategies for events before they occur. A infectious disease model susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) is used to simulate the impact of vaccination, quarantine, isolation and demographic and stage-dependent behavior. Paper 20. Management of a large public hospital This paper analyze the behavior of the outpatient department of a large public hospital specialized in cardiology, understanding how the components of this system are related, in order to improve the hospital’s performance. The result showed that doctor availability and average consultation time have great influence on the service capacity.

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